October 30th

No Office 11 for Win98.

Microsoft is at it again. We have been grumbling for some time about the fact that Microsoft is obviously desperate to phase out its older, less copy-protected operating systems. This is a big sticking point with Bill. He hates the thought that some kid somewhere is using one copy of Windows 98 on both of his home computers. This drives Bill bonkers.

So in his never-ending quest for more and more money and more and more control over the computer industry, Bill has decreed to his programmers that Microsoft Office version 11 is not to run on any operating system other than Windows XP (or 2K if patched with SP3). They have said that if they get enough complaints they might rejigger the thing to work with older versions, but to be honest, Bill is going to do this come hell or high water, sooner or later. So get used to it.

There would be absolutely no problem here except for one little detail. Many people absolutely hate Windows product activation, or WPA, and Windows XP is the first Microsoft operating system that has this little gem built in. So while it really didn't matter in the past if Office 2000 did not run on Windows 95, it really does matter to a lot of people that the new version of Office will not run on Windows 98.

                                       Dr. John

The Inquirer

October 28th

Why People Hate Microsoft, Part MCMXLII

People who know how Microsoft does business don't like what they see one bit.  For a nice long expose' on Microsoft's soft touch with their little competitors, and their customers, take a look at Egan Orion's piece over at the Inquirer.  Egan goes point by point into the world of low-down dirty tricks that Bill has created, and then he wonders aloud if MS, and Bill, will ever grow up.  Let's not all hold our breaths while waiting, for fear of suffocation.

                                       Dr. John

October 25th

How Much Does It Cost To Bribe Your Representative? 

Just ask Bill Gates.  He should know, according to  articles at NewsForge and in the Washington Post. The story goes like this.  A group of Senators drafted a letter to the White House computer security adviser concerning sales opportunities for federally funded software development projects. This letter made no mention of any particular type of software until Representative Adam Smith, from Microsoft's home state of Washington, added additional correspondence to the letter, before circulating it to other Senators for their signatures.  This added correspondence contained language directed at open-source software (aka General Public License software), including a statement saying that the free software philosophy is "problematic, and threatens to undermine innovation and security."

Representative Smith's office admits that they had been in contact with Microsoft, but they insisted that there was no direct relationship between the meetings and the newly drafted, anti-open source language in the letter. It also turns out that Smith received his largest campaign contribution from... you guessed it, Microsoft.  So how much does it cost to bribe your Representative these days?  It's cheap, at a mere $22,900, which Bill has in his penny jar on his dresser.

                                       Dr. John

Washington Post

NewsForge

October 24th

Intel Abandons Moore's Law 

Moore's Law states that microprocessors will double in speed and power 18 to 24 months.  The law has actually held up over decades of microprocessor history.  But this may be coming to an end (how many times have we heard that before?) if Pat Gesinger of Intel is correct.  He claimed recently that Intel CPUs will be running at 15GHz by 2010.  That sounds impressive until you compare it with Moore's Law.  Let's start with a 3GHz P4, and assume a doubling every 24 months. That means 6GHz by 2005, 12GHz by 2007, 24GHz by 2009, and 36GHz by 2010.  So Pat is off by at least half.  Does that mean that Intel knows something we don't?  It's hard to say.  But what I'm thinking is, if they can fabricate chips at 90 namometers or less by then, a 15GHz computer might be able to fit in your cell phone, with full speech recognition capabilities in the hardware. At that point, you could have a conversation with your cell phone, without anyone on the other end.

                                       Dr. John

October 23rd

Convergence, Or Head-On Collision? 

Jack Robertson over at EBN has a commentary on the unusual connection between the deployment of HDTV, computer hardware, and the digital millennium copyright act.  For years industry watchers have been mumbling about the so-called convergence of home computers, home networking, and various communication technologies creating the ultimate home entertainment system.  And while this convergence has been a long time in coming, all of the pieces are now in place.  But that doesn't mean that networking your PC to your HDTV and a satellite dish is going to go smoothly, because this technology is on course for a head-on collision with the digital millennium copyright act, AKA the DMCA. This onerous piece of legislation is so strict that it clearly violates the "fair use" components of previous laws that allow home recording, so much so that even the library of Congress is now taking comments from the public on how to relax the interpretation of the DMCA.

As you might expect, the brouhaha concerns the fact that the public will be able to record ultrahigh definition movies to a DVD recorder on their computer.  And while this is very similar to making a VHS recording for your own use, Hollywood is worried about Napster-like video trading which would cut into their profits. One proposal on the table is to insert code into the video file that would permit home recording, but block transmission over the Internet.  I'm not sure this will work, it sounds like something that could be easily circumvented.

Of course this isn't the only problem.  Broadcasters are in no hurry to convert to digital high-definition transmission, and most now say they would rather broadcast 3 low resolution channels using the same bandwidth rather than a single high-definition channel.  One thing is very clear though, the recording industry and the motion picture industry are doing more to delay the adoption of new technologies than any other groups or organizations.  With their deep pockets, you can expect this to be a very long and fruitless battle, with consumers getting the short end of the stick.

                                       Dr. John

EBN

October 17th

AMD Wavering 

According to the most recent announcements, AMD is going to cut operating costs (layoffs etc), and will be pushing the Desktop (Athlon Pro) Hammer chip debut back to late 2003.  On top of their reported operating loses, and their abysmally low stock price, it makes you wonder how much trouble they are really in.  We haven't heard a single piece of good news from AMD in some time.  It almost reminds me of all the talk about "Rampage" coming out of 3dfx right before....

Oops.  Did I really say that?

                                       Dr. John

EBN

October 16th

Intel Says AMD Hammer Sucks

Intel normally ignores the opposition, but with AMD's Hammer 32/64 bit chips looming, Intel has wheeled out their paid "analysts" to trash the Hammer.  The Gartner Group says nobody wants a 32/64 bit chip from AMD ("it's a dud"), and instead insists everyone will want an Itanium 64 bit chip from Intel (at 4 times the price, and completely incompatible with existing software). If this wasn't so funny, it would almost sound tragically sad.  But coming from hired Intel hit men, it is truly hysterical. Intel's biggest dud to date has been their Itanium series of processors (aptly named the Itanic by industry watchers). While, conversely, even the NY Times has run positive stories on AMD's upcoming Hammer series of processors.

When Intel wheels out Gartner garbage twice in 2 months, you know they are getting worried.

                                        Dr. John

The Inquirer

October 11th

Intel's Karma Debt; Paid in Part

If there is such a thing as Karma, Intel is feeling it's wrath.  Intel teamed up with Rambus Inc. in the mid 1990s in an attempt to help the IP (intellectual property) firm grab hold of a large segment of the PC memory industry.  Rambus used highly questionable tactics to acquire patents to memory architectures that they had not designed, and used those patents to extort huge royalty payments from memory manufacturers. Intel wasn't overly happy with the techniques used by Rambus, but they went along. Things then turned South for Rambus when the inevitable patent infringement cases made their way to court, and eventually, Rambus slipped further and further off Intel's roadmap. But in many ways, the damage had been done, and no one came out unscathed. 

But what goes around, always ends up coming back around, possibly to bite you.  Now Intel is on the other end of an IP nightmare, but this time of their own making.  Long ago, Intel thought it had rights to Intergraph patents when they bought a subsidiary.  But the courts have consistently disagreed, and in several previous cases concerning the design of the Pentium processor, Intel has been forced to pay Intergraph hundreds of millions of dollars.  Now Intergraph says Intel's Itanium and Itanium II processors infringe on even more Intergraph patents, and the judge agreed again.  This lost court round is costing Intel $150 million, and if they lose the next round, another $100 million. 

Now Intel must understand how Rambus made the rest of the PC memory industry feel, and they can't be enjoying this little taste of Karma.

                                        Dr. John

The Inquirer

October 9th

When PC Worlds Divide, 
Part II

Lets take up right where we left off... the economics of shoving copy protected PCs on the public. The big question that remains unanswered is how many people with buy DRM-crippled machines because they are told they are "more secure".  If the vast majority of the public goes along in ignorant bliss ("mommy, my PC won't burn any MP3 files!"), then the economics say DRM will work.  But if a significant number of people look for non-DRM hardware and software, and refuse to buy the DRM-versions, then the economics shift the other way.

Well, it's beginning to look like the squeaky wheel does get all the oil, because enough people have written to complain to Microsoft about copy protection built into Windows Media Player, that MS has decided to pull the protections from the upcoming Media Player 9.  If your goal is to kill the competition with free bundleware in your OS, it doesn't help to cripple your media player while the competition you're trying to kill leaves the protection out of their player.  Aren't economics wonderful? But without the complaints, MS would never have known the degree of disdain for their products intentional limitations.  So keep those letters flowing to Bill and his minions, or they may forget that there is a squeaky wheel on the PC bandwagon.

                                        Dr. John

CNet

October 7th

When PC Worlds Divide

The world of relatively 'open-standard' personal computers has remained interoperable enough for twenty years to be considered a platform.  In an empirical sense, despite vast differences in PC hardware and software, the platform has remained well enough defined to allow thousands of third party products to work together with only moderate difficulty.  But as Digital Rights Management (DRM) and the associated changes in hardware and software become codified into digital law, the first major divergence in PC platforms may ensue.  

Microsoft has signed a big deal with RSA Security Inc. to incorporate their encryption technology into MS products.  This will even be incorporated into MS Passport, the service that forces many Windows XP users to sign up with Microsoft to do certain on-line transactions.  When we look at the totality of what is happening to PCs in the name of "security", the picture is daunting:  Microsoft "Palladium" built into Windows, new CPUs from AMD and Intel with built-in copy protection circuitry, "Fritz chips" on motherboards that further limit functionality and the ability to copy files, and upcoming changes to hard drives, CD drives, DVD drives, etc, that also prevent "unsigned" materials from being copied, not to mention the constant ratcheting up of Windows Product Activation, licensing schemes, and end-user license agreements. 

If all of this comes to fruition, I see a split occurring in the PC world.  I see DRM-Microsoft compatible systems going the direction of proprietary "content delivery systems" under the complete control of large corporations, and I see the Linux/Freeware systems going the route of open-source and open-standards. I also anticipate a split in the hardware market into DRM vs. non-DRM parts if significant modifications are called for to achieve "DRM-compliance".  It will be very interesting to watch the economics of this transition pan out.

                                        Dr. John

October 5th

Graphics DDR-III in the Works.

JEDEC, the memory standards committee, is working out the details for a new graphics memory design called GDDR-III. The new standard will provide data rates up to 1.5GB/second at bus speeds of up to 750MHz.  JEDEC is also working on a DDR-III standard for PC memory, but that will take longer to finalize. You can expect graphics cards to make use of GDDR-III memory architecture by mid to late 2003.

                                        Dr. John

EBN

October 3rd

AMD Scrambles

AMD has been in the news recently in what would have to be called a bad way.  Not much has been going right for the smaller chip company, revenues are down, production is splintered between old and new product, and there are uncertain problems with the new Hammer processors and the switch to silicon on insulator technology. All this has had an effect on the company's stock price, and their mindset.  AMD has been scrambling to reassure shareholders and consumers that they are on track for the upcoming Barton and Hammer series processors.  But that "track" has been pushed back in time by several months.

Intel is actually doing better than usual, and has avoided any major mistakes for awhile, set aside the stability problems with the i850e and 1066 Rambus DRAM. But Intel may have it's hands full when the Spring debut of Hammer happens. Until then, AMD will be acting like a fish out of water. In my opinion though, AMD should relax and get on with business.  The biggest problems facing AMD now may not be fabrication issues, but rather their own tendency to make too many lower end CPUs, and then flood the gray market with them.  AMD needs to focus on keeping just enough inventory for each product grade to satisfy demand, and that means no more Durons, but plenty more high-end chips.  As long as AMD keeps the gray markets flooded with under-priced chips, they will be in a bad marketing position. It's time to cut production on the low end, and scale up production on the high end, if they want profits to rise.

                                        Dr. John

EBN

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