October 31st, 2000
More "Pentium 4 is a Dog" Stories.

  As companies like Micron prepare new Athlon systems with DDR memory, other stories continue to surface on the Web that suggest the Pentium III, (let alone the new Athlon), is faster than the Pentium 4. (Some stories have been removed already at the request of Intel!).  We had made the same observation about low P4 performance over a month ago based on Pentium III vs. Pentium 4 benchmark comparisons. Benchmarks of the new 133 MHz Athlon and DDR memory on motherboards with the AMD 760 chipset plainly show that these are the fastest PCs ever made. Substantially faster than the Pentium 4 systems whose benchmarks have appeared on Internet.

  Clearly, Intel has enough market muscle, and a large enough loyal customer base to survive this, but after their Pentium III-i820 disaster, they are running very low on credibility. If the prerelease benchmarks that have surfaced on the Web for Pentium 4 systems are accurate, and Pentium 4 systems cost more than the new Athlon systems which are faster, Intel's loyal customer base will shrink further.

  If by Christmas time AMD sales are way up, and Intel sales are lagging, it may be time for Intel to pull out a backup plan. It is clear that with a Pentium III reworked at 0.13 microns, coupled with a fast new chipset with DDR support, perhaps from VIA technologies, Intel could be back in the running with a low-cost, high-speed chip that rivaled the new Athlon. This backup plan is in the works, but with P4 fabrication running at full tilt, it is doubtful that Intel is willing or able to do a very quick turnaround back to the P3. It would be an embarrassing move if they had to do it, but at least they have their Pentium III ad campaign in place.
 :-)

My guess is that Intel is working just as hard on a new Pentium 4 (code-named Northwood) which will replace the initial Pentium 4 (code-named Willamette) fairly quickly. The newer Pentium 4 will require even newer motherboards based on the Tehama-E chipset (i850e). That means that people who buy the initial Pentium 4 will be stuck with systems whose motherboards cannot accept the newer version of the Pentium 4 chip. This fact, if it becomes widely known, will also seriously hurt Pentium 4 sales. To give you a small informal poll on P4 vs. Athlon popularity, we have yet to have a single customer ask about Pentium 4 systems. In contrast, almost all of our customers are asking about the new Athlon systems. At this point, Rambus Inc. must be thanking their lucky stars for the PlayStation2.

                                                      Dr. John